Value bets in the Finnish elections
In many cases the most interesting betting market in elections is the winner. The April elections in Finland don't follow this pattern. There is minimal interest in the winner market as the odds for the favorite - Keskusta - are 1.03 and the probability for a win is over 99%. Are there any markets that give a good expected value? We will take a look for the most interesting ones and provide probabilities for those as well.
One interesting battle is the race for the 7th position between RKP and KD. Odds favor RKP 1.35 to 2.95, but how about our probabilities? We have calculated probability for RKP to be seventh biggest party 78% and KD's chances are around 22%. As you can see there is a small value when betting RKP (1.35 compared to our 1.27).
Another good head to head market is the race between Vihreät and Vasemmistoliitto. This race has been a coin flip for a long time, but right now we have predicted Vasemmistoliitto to take this by 55% compared to 45% for Vihreät. Odds are favoring Vasemmistoliitto as well (1,65 - 2.1) , but there is no value to bet in this race with these numbers.
A typical over/under bet in elections is the percentage of the votes that a particular party will get. Here we have listed numbers that we think have some value. In practice every time when converted odds from our probabilities are lower than odds from betting companies, there is a value for that bet.
- Keskusta Over 24%: Odds 2.55 - Probability 2.40
- Kokoomus Under 20%: Odds 1.06 - Probability 1.01
- Perussuomalaiset Over 15%: Odds 1.42 - Probability 1.16
- Winner Over 22%: Odds 1.26 - Probability 1.19
If you can find places that offer parlays for these markets, it would be worth to combine some of the most probable ones to get higher odds. With many betting companies there is a quite low limits for bets, but as you see, there is quite a good amount of different bets that you can make.